The Geopolitics of Tibet’s Water
The Mekong: Lifeline of Southeast Asia
The Mekong River is the lifeblood of Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Vietnam, and Cambodia. It sustains millions through fishing, farming, and transportation. In 2021, China, an upper riparian state controlling the river’s headwaters in Tibet, slashed the Mekong’s flow by 50% for three weeks without warning. This disrupted livelihoods across these nations, highlighting China’s dominance over Asia’s “water tower”—the Tibetan Plateau.
As an upper riparian state, China holds the commanding heights, able to regulate water flow. By building dams, it can withhold water in summer, causing droughts in lower riparian countries, or release excess water during monsoons, triggering floods. This control allows China, a manufacturing giant, to potentially “manufacture” floods, droughts, and disasters as geopolitical tools.
The Brahmaputra: A River Under Threat
The Brahmaputra, known as Yarlung Tsangpo in China, originates in Tibet’s Himalayas, flowing through India’s Arunachal Pradesh and Assam, then Bangladesh, before emptying into the Bay of Bengal. It brings fertile silt for agriculture but also causes devastating floods. China’s plan to build a super dam on the Brahmaputra, potentially generating 60 gigawatts—triple the capacity of the Three Gorges Dam—raises alarms. As of 2025, China has completed 10 of 28 proposed dams in the region, giving it significant control over the river’s flow.
This poses two major risks for India:
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Reduced Fertility: Dams could trap silt, reducing fertile soil in India’s Northeast, harming agriculture.
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Water Manipulation: China could withhold water during dry seasons, causing droughts, or release excess water during monsoons, exacerbating floods in India and Bangladesh.
The Himalayan region, already earthquake-prone, faces further risks from such large-scale projects. Damming also causes deforestation, soil erosion, and biodiversity loss. The Dalai Lama has repeatedly criticised China’s infrastructure projects and nuclear tests for damaging Tibet’s ecology.
China’s Clean Energy Claim vs. Geopolitical Strategy
China justifies its dams as essential for clean energy goals, a stance India also takes with its own dams. However, a 2023 Institute for Defence Studies and Analysis (IDSA) report questions China’s intentions, given the tense India-China relationship. The 2017 Doklam standoff, when China halted sharing hydrological data during monsoon season—crucial for flood assessment—underscored its willingness to weaponise water resources.
Tibet’s Geopolitics: China’s Fear and Control
Tim Marshall’s Prisoners of Geography describes Tibet’s geopolitics as driven by China’s fear. If China didn’t control Tibet, India could dominate the plateau, gaining control over the headwaters of major rivers like the Yellow, Yangtze, and Mekong. This would allow India to regulate water flow into China’s heartland, a scenario China seeks to prevent. By holding Tibet, China maintains the upper hand, controlling water for nearly 2 billion people across Afghanistan, the Indus, Ganga-Brahmaputra, and Mekong basins.
The Chinese Water Bomb: A Growing Threat
China’s dam-building strategy is often termed a “water bomb” due to its potential to disrupt lower riparian states. The Mekong’s 2021 flow cut and the Brahmaputra’s super dam project illustrate this. In 2024, reports surfaced of China testing water releases from its Tibetan dams, raising fears of engineered floods in downstream nations. These actions affect not just Southeast Asia but also India and Bangladesh, where floods and droughts could intensify.
Challenges for Lower Riparian Nations
The Himalayan ecosystem faces severe ecological risks from China’s projects. Beyond environmental damage, the geopolitical imbalance is stark: an autocratic government in Beijing holds sway over the livelihoods of millions. Lower riparian nations face limited options:
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India’s Response: Build power plants in Arunachal Pradesh to counter China’s dams, ensuring some control over water flow and energy.
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Regional Unity: India should lead lower riparian states—Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia, and Bangladesh—in diplomatic efforts to pressure China into responsible water management. A 2025 ASEAN summit highlighted early talks on a regional water-sharing framework, though China’s cooperation remains uncertain.
Conclusion: Navigating the Water Crisis
China’s control over Tibet’s rivers gives it unprecedented power over Asia’s water resources, with implications for millions. While China claims its dams support clean energy, the strategic use of water as a geopolitical tool cannot be ignored. India and other lower riparian nations must act swiftly—through infrastructure, diplomacy, and regional alliances—to mitigate the risks of China’s “water bomb.” The stakes are high, and cooperation is crucial to ensure equitable water access and regional stability.
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